![]() No matter how many people are or are not playing in other bingo halls throughout the land, probability theory says it is no more likely that Betty herself would have such a run of luck. Betty thinks to herself: "Wow, there must be lots of people playing bingo in other bingo halls tonight!" Her reasoning is: if there are lots of people playing throughout the country, then it's not so improbable that somebody would get all their numbers called out in the first minute.īut this is an instance of the inverse gambler's fallacy. Suppose Betty is the only person playing in her local bingo hall one night, and in an incredible run of luck, all of her numbers come up in the first minute. ![]() Specifically, the charge is that multiverse theorists commit what's called the inverse gambler's fallacy. However, experts in the mathematics of probability have identified the inference from fine-tuning to a multiverse as an instance of fallacious reasoning - something I explore in my new book, Why? The Purpose of the Universe. ![]() For a long time, this seemed to me the most plausible explanation of fine-tuning.
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